Big Three or Bust: NBA Trades as Analyzed through the “Seven Ways to Fail Big”

Perhaps it’s because I’ve been tuned into the NBA championship lately, but Carroll and Mui’s “Seven Ways to Fail Big” immediately made me think of how the “Seven Ways to Fail Big” could be used to analyze some of the best and worst NBA teams. Though all the tenets do not apply, there are surely two that do: The Synergistic Mirage and Staying the Course.

In basketball, some of the greatest teams of all time are characterized by their “Big Three,” superstar triads that result from trades and draft picks. Think Pierce, Garnett, and Allen in Boston; or James, Bosh, and Wade in Miami. These powerhouse teams were developed through strategic (and sometimes contentious) trades, leading to multiple championships and nightmares for their competitors. In the case of Boston, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen brought their experience and complementary skill sets to support franchise player Paul Pierce. Devoid of a championship, James controversially left Cleveland and along with Bosh from the Raptors, joined Wade in Miami to win back-to-back championships.

When other teams have tried to respond to these super teams, they have fallen victim to The Synergistic Mirage. The Lakers’ Bryant, Nash, and Howard experiment in 2012-13 to reclaim their place as a contender in the Western Conference led to an early playoff exit. And when Boston’s big three were traded to form other big threes in Brooklyn and Sacramento, disaster occurred. These lineups lacked the synergy that other big threes possessed, with their detriment contributable to the egos of the players, lack of cohesion among the stars, players’ skill set, and poor coaching and management.

While some teams continue to invest in these superstar combos, others are plagued by Staying the Course. The Warriors acquired Durant two years ago to beat Cleveland, and are back-to-back NBA champions, while the Cavaliers haven’t provided any help for James, which will likely lead to his second exit from Cleveland. And despite having top draft picks season after season, some teams refuse to make the necessary changes in players, coaching, and management to win.

This is not to say that acquiring a big three is the best move for every team because that may lead to synergistic mirage. However, teams that lack foresight about the future of the league and/or are inattentive to what other teams are doing in the offseason stand to lose out. These teams could benefit from a devil’s advocate to ask questions and provide feedback about strategy. This is easier said than done in owner culture of the NBA, but absolutely necessary if these franchises want to win championships.