In this week's blog, I want to focus on the Strategic Scenario Planning and Development process. Scenario planning is the action of generating actionable insights by creating a small set of scenarios for an organization's future environment. This environment is relevant to critical business decisions, distinct, individually realistic and together cover the depth and breadth of uncertainties. Let us discuss the few scenario considerations, to begin with. There could be various external factors that influence business performance. What will the customer value in the future? Will the growth be stable? Will government regulations impact corporate activity directly? Do we have the right balance on the resources needed? These questions would help determine the major factors such as Quality of Life, economic momentum, volatility, market vs government, resources, and environment which in turn influences the business performance.
The scenario planning process can be a five-step approach. The first one is to define the scope. The primary task would be to identify the core problems and frame the analysis. A framing checklist could be used to perform this task. The second step is to analyze the perception and understanding the trends and uncertainty. this perception could vary from capturing the stakeholder feedback, identifying the user needs and the assumptions and mental models. The relevant trends in the market need to be understood and discussed so that the worst case scenarios could be formulated to avoid roadblocks. The third step is to build a scenario around the possible roadblocks. There need to be certain measures that could be taken to mitigate the calculated risks based on these key uncertainitites. The fourth step is to define and develop the optimal strategy. This is the primary step where viable action plans need to be deducted for implementation. A strategy manual needs to be built which would drive the process in an iterative manner and provides space to make adjustments to the strategy when a need arises. The final step is to monitor the challenges and assumptions. Systematic monitoring of the various assumptions made enhance the responsiveness to new challenges and align the strategic planning activities.