Markets that do not exist cannot be analyzed

I found it very refreshing to read the introduction for The Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. This presented a realistic perspective on how businesses which may always be trying to do the right things can still ultimately fail. And what he commented was a viewpoint that was sometimes taken as fatalistic, that the best and most adept managers will facilitate the company to fail, I actually found as a relief to read.

All too often through various TED Talks, articles, and case studies, it seems that there is the belief that one person’s success should be able to be translated over to another. The same goes with companies. Christensen’s honesty about failures due to high costs, new discoveries, and the best intentions come down to chance, and how we mere mortals cannot be expected to anticipate and analyze the future correctly every time. My favorite line: that markets that do not exist cannot be analyzed. 

However, at no point does Christensen exempt companies from dealing with this reality, but rather provides them with examples and scenarios for how to overcome the fact that the world changes, and so do markets. This is in line with our discussion of GE last class. The case study presented the tactics of Immelt to keep GE’s growth after 9/11 and the recession, and now the company finds itself again of decreasing status. Though this may be attributed to Immelt’s lack of acknowledging mistakes or any other fault, it does appear that there was an inability to predict the future. Who would have guessed? Though most companies want to be the bright shining star that propels the market, rather than follows it, there are only going to be a few of them at a time, and all companies will go through an ebb and flow cycle or varying success.